Ukraine could potentially develop a basic nuclear weapon within months if newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump were to cut military support, according to a recent memo reviewed by The Times.
The report, prepared for Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense, suggests Ukraine could produce a simple, plutonium-based bomb using technology like that of the 1945 “Fat Man” bomb dropped on Nagasaki.
The memo argues that building a rudimentary atomic bomb today, akin to what the U.S. developed during the Manhattan Project, would be feasible. Lacking facilities for large-scale uranium enrichment, Ukraine would likely turn to plutonium extracted from spent nuclear fuel rods from its nine active reactors. The document notes that Ukraine, despite dismantling the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal in 1996, still retains significant nuclear expertise.
Ukraine is estimated to have around seven tons of plutonium, enough to create hundreds of small-yield tactical warheads, with each device producing about one-tenth of the power of the original “Fat Man.” Even a relatively low-yield weapon, the report states, could target Russian military bases or industrial sites effectively.
However, the exact yield would vary due to differences in plutonium isotopes. Oleksii Yizhak, the report’s author and head of Ukraine’s National Institute for Strategic Studies, mentioned that while the technology is feasible, Kyiv is not seriously pursuing nuclear rearmament.
President Zelenskyy previously hinted at considering nuclear options if Ukraine could not join NATO, although he later clarified he was underscoring Ukraine’s need for alternative security assurances. Ukrainian officials have since denied intentions of developing nuclear weapons.
