In the first 11 months of this year, cocoa and coffee have seen significant price increases, with coffee reaching record levels. The prices of gold, silver, and natural gas are also rising. In contrast, wheat, corn, and soybeans have become significantly cheaper, and oil prices have also dropped.
“Commodity prices were strongly boosted in September by economic stimulus in China. On the other hand, after the U.S. presidential election in early November, a strong dollar and a weaker economic outlook in some countries dampened them,” said Jiří Tyleček, an analyst at XTB.
According to him, cocoa has shown the highest growth in the commodity market this year, with a 111 percent increase so far. Coffee prices accelerated in November, reaching record highs. Since the beginning of the year, coffee has increased by 75 percent. The adverse weather has played the biggest role in driving up the prices of these commodities. However, in the case of coffee, traders’ concerns about potential tariffs in the U.S. have also been a significant factor.
“Precious metals have also enjoyed significant growth this year. The price of gold rose by 28 percent from the beginning of the year to the end of November,” said Pavel Ryba, an analyst at Golden Gate CZ. The increase is supported by greater demand from central banks, investors seeking safe havens, and expectations of a reduction in interest rates. Silver’s price increase has closely followed that of gold, resulting in a rise of over a quarter. The industrial metal platinum has dropped by 6.8 percent so far. In the energy sector, the situation is not so clear, according to Tyleček. “The price of natural gas is rising significantly. In the U.S., this commodity has increased by 31 percent, and in Europe, it has risen by 47 percent. The uncertainty surrounding Russian supply plays a role here. The price of electricity also responds to natural gas, showing a seven percent increase on the Leipzig exchange since the beginning of the year. The coal contract price in Rotterdam has risen by eight percent this year,” he added.
Looking at oil prices, the situation is positive. The North Sea Brent is down by five percent this year, and the Texas benchmark WTI has decreased by four percent. The market is contending with expected oversupply next year and speculation about potential reductions in production quotas within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Consumers may benefit from this year’s drop in grain prices. Wheat has dropped by 14 percent, corn by 12 percent, and soybeans by 24 percent. The main reason for this is the expected global oversupply and high inventories from previous years. In November, the strength of the U.S. dollar also played a significant role, making exports from the U.S. more expensive.
