Greece and Cyprus have drawn a firm line in the sand, blocking the EU from lifting sanctions on Syria’s Islamist regime, a move championed by Turkish President Erdoğan. This opposition highlights a deeper rift within the EU, fueled by concerns over regional stability and the ongoing geopolitical tug-of-war between Athens, Nicosia, and Ankara.
On January 27th, EU foreign ministers reached a political deal in Brussels to ease sanctions on Syria. But Greece and Cyprus have stalled the process, demanding assurances that sanctions can be quickly reinstated if needed. Their primary worry? Lifting restrictions too soon could strengthen the new Syrian regime and, by extension, solidify Turkey’s influence over the region.
The Greek and Cypriot opposition goes beyond just their historical tensions with Turkey; they’re also wary of the impact on Eastern Mediterranean stability. With memories of the 2015 migration crisis still fresh, they fear that easing sanctions might unleash a new wave of migration, further destabilizing Europe and emboldening extremist groups connected to Turkey.
Back in 2015, as Syria’s civil war raged, the EU struck a deal with Turkey to manage the refugee crisis. In return for hosting millions of displaced people, Turkey received €3 billion. Erdoğan has since used this deal as leverage, constantly threatening to open Turkey’s borders to refugees.
The EU, led by foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, argues that suspending sanctions in key sectors like energy, transport, and finance will help stabilize Syria post-Assad. But Greece and Cyprus counter that such measures will only benefit Turkey, pushing its political and economic expansion in Syria.
Ribal al-Assad, the cousin of the former Syrian leader and founder of the Organisation for Democracy and Freedom in Syria (ODFS), has been outspoken in his criticism. He’s surprised by the push to lift sanctions, pointing out that violence and atrocities still plague Syria daily. He warns that Syria could become “a sanctuary of extremism at Europe’s doorstep” if the international community doesn’t act decisively.
In response, Greece, Cyprus, and Austria have proposed a more cautious approach. At the EU Foreign Affairs Council on December 16th, they presented a plan calling for an EU special envoy to Syria, a European reconstruction support mechanism, and using Assad’s frozen assets for humanitarian aid. These measures aim to ensure European assistance is tied to a genuine political transition in Syria, with guarantees for its territorial integrity and ethno-religious diversity. They’re also pushing for constant oversight to ensure aid doesn’t unintentionally fuel extremist groups or benefit the Turkish government.
Ribal al-Assad has raised concerns about legitimizing extremist groups, pointing out the EU’s reluctance to engage with terrorist organizations like Hamas, Hezbollah, or Al-Qaeda. He questions why Europe would consider dealing with groups linked to ISIS.
The proposals from Cyprus, Greece, and Austria also highlight the risks of Syria’s fragmentation and the rise of extremist factions, like the Islamic State and the Muslim Brotherhood. They also point to the growing issue of drug trafficking, particularly Captagon, which funds armed groups in the region.
In the end, Greece and Cyprus stress that any EU action on Syria must come with a clear strategy that not only secures immediate stability but ensures a safe, Islamist-free future for the country. The final decision on sanctions will be pivotal, shaping Syria’s future and determining Turkey’s influence in European politics.
