China’s exports rose more sharply than expected in April, climbing 8.1% year-over-year, even as new U.S. tariffs took effect, the government reported Friday.
The figure exceeded economists’ forecasts of 2% growth and followed a 12.4% increase in March. However, exports to the United States dropped more than 20%.
Imports declined slightly, falling 0.2% compared to the same period last year.
The data release came just ahead of scheduled trade talks in Geneva, where U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other American officials are set to meet with China’s top trade envoy, He Lifeng. The discussions may mark a shift in the trade standoff triggered by President Donald Trump’s escalation of tariffs on Chinese goods to as much as 145%.
Despite this upcoming dialogue, tensions between the two economic giants remain high. Analysts caution that deeper strategic differences could hinder any meaningful breakthrough. Some tariffs, including Beijing’s retaliatory 125% duties on U.S. exports, may be eased, but a full rollback appears unlikely.
“This means China’s exports to the U.S. are set for further declines over the coming months, not all of which will be offset by increased trade with other countries. We still expect export growth to turn negative later this year,” Zichun Huang of Capital Economics said in a report.
China’s politically sensitive trade surplus with the U.S. narrowed to $20.5 billion in April, down from $27.2 billion a year earlier. For the first four months of the year, exports to the U.S. declined 2.5%, while imports from the U.S. were down 4.7%.
Meanwhile, U.S. imports from countries not affected by the 145% tariff on Chinese goods have been rising, according to preliminary data.
Still, China has managed to cushion the blow from the U.S. slump by expanding trade elsewhere. Exports to Southeast Asia rose 11.5% in the year’s first four months, matching the pace of growth in exports to Latin America. Shipments to India jumped nearly 16% by value, and exports to Africa climbed 15%.
Within Asia, export growth was particularly strong, reflecting a trend among Chinese and international manufacturers to diversify their supply chains outside mainland China. Exports to Vietnam increased 18% year-on-year, while shipments to Thailand surged 20%.
On a month-over-month basis, China’s total exports edged up 0.6% in April, with imports rising by nearly 4% from March.
