If Brussels follows through on its plans to pull the plug on Russian gas, Hungarian families could be in for a rude financial awakening — with heating bills potentially tripling, according to fresh projections by the Századvég Institute.
The Budapest-based think tank estimates Hungary would be slapped with a jaw-dropping annual tab of nearly HUF 1,100 billion (roughly €2.8 billion) if Russian energy imports are cut off completely. That’s not just bad news for the national energy grid — it’s a direct hit on every Hungarian household trying to stay warm in winter without going broke.
Cranking the numbers using global and domestic energy data, Századvég paints a bleak picture: gas prices would likely double, market volatility would surge, and Hungary’s popular state-backed utility price caps — among the lowest in Europe — could crumble under the weight.
The warning comes on the heels of the European Commission’s latest energy blueprint, which sets a course to phase out Russian gas entirely by 2027. “No more will we let Russia use energy as a weapon,” declared EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen, promising to starve Moscow’s war chest of fuel cash.
Bold words, but not everyone’s buying it.
Hungary, which currently relies on about 4.5 billion cubic meters of Russian gas per year, isn’t keen on ditching its main supplier without a solid backup plan. And they’re not alone. Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico has already waved the veto flag, warning that shutting off Russian oil and gas could cripple refineries and trigger system-wide chaos. “We’ll block it if we have to,” he said flatly.
Here at home, Századvég breaks down what this could look like for the average Hungarian family. Right now, households spend around HUF 176,900 (€435) per year on heating, thanks to government subsidies. Without price protections? That figure could leap to HUF 355,310. And if Russian gas disappears entirely, expect a bone-chilling hike to around HUF 625,000 (€1,540) — more than triple the current cost.
On top of that, finding alternative suppliers to replace Russia’s annual deliveries would cost Hungary an extra HUF 660 billion at minimum. If all Russian gas — including indirect flows — were banned, the price tag could skyrocket to HUF 1,100 billion annually.
The think tank also called attention to broader fallout from Brussels’ policies. Since 2022, Hungarian families have taken an estimated HUF 2.2 million (€5,430) hit due to rising energy bills, lost trade opportunities, and higher borrowing rates. Tack on Ukraine’s fast-tracked EU membership, and that adds another HUF 458,000 per household. A Russian gas ban? That’s another HUF 448,000 down the drain.
“The EU’s top priorities — flooding Ukraine with weapons, speeding up its accession, and cutting off Russian gas — all come with a staggering price tag for Hungarian citizens,” Századvég wrote in its final analysis.
In short, Hungary’s message is clear: when it comes to energy policy, Brussels might be lighting a fuse it can’t put out — and ordinary families will be left to pay the bill.
