German consumer confidence is expected to edge higher in June, according to a survey released Tuesday, though continued reluctance among households to spend is seen as a key barrier to a stronger economic rebound.
The consumer sentiment index compiled by GfK and the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM) increased by 0.9 points from the previous month, reaching -19.9. This figure narrowly missed analysts’ forecast of -19.8, according to a Reuters poll. The modest gain was supported by improved income expectations in May, a key component in calculating the forward-looking consumer climate measure.
However, this positive momentum was tempered by a reduced willingness to make major purchases and a greater inclination to save. The latest reading marks the third consecutive monthly increase, but the pace of improvement appears to be losing steam as June approaches.
“The level of consumer sentiment remains extremely low, and consumer uncertainty remains high,” said Rolf Buerkl, NIM’s head of consumer climate, citing instability from tariffs, stock market fluctuations, and Germany’s potential third straight year without economic growth. “In view of the general economic situation, people seem to think it advisable to save,” Buerkl added.
Germany’s recently elected government has pledged significant investment and measures to stimulate the economy following two consecutive years of contraction. Yet a volatile trade dispute with the United States has cast doubt on Germany’s export-heavy economy, leading officials to abandon their 2026 growth forecast.
The survey, conducted between May 1 and 12, 2025, notes that any reading above zero suggests private consumption is growing compared to the previous year, while values below zero indicate a decline. A one-point shift in the index correlates to a 0.1% year-over-year change in private consumption, according to GfK.
The “willingness to buy” component measures how respondents assess the timing of purchasing large items, while the income expectations sub-index reflects anticipated changes in household finances over the next 12 months. Another part of the survey, the business cycle expectations index, gauges public perception of broader economic conditions for the year ahead.
