Prime Minister Michel Barnier is scrambling to save his position as his 2025 budget faces rejection in the French National Assembly.
On November 26th, he appeared on national television to defend himself, warning of disastrous financial consequences if the budget is voted down. Barnier signaled that he may resort to using Article 49.3 of the constitution to force the budget through, a move he had previously resisted, but now sees as nearly inevitable due to the lack of majority support.
In an effort to appease the Rassemblement National (RN), whose support is crucial to avoid a censure motion, Barnier announced plans to introduce proportional representation (PR) in legislative elections. PR, a long-standing demand of the RN, would better reflect the public’s political preferences in the National Assembly. Barnier vowed to submit a study on the issue in the spring, eager to gain favor with the far-right party.
However, this strategy is risky. While Barnier wants to avoid censure, he also fears appearing to capitulate to RN demands. Marine Le Pen, leader of the RN, criticized Barnier’s dramatic rhetoric, dismissing his warnings of a financial collapse if the budget fails. She argued that even in the event of a censure, essential services like pensions, medical care, and civil servant salaries would still be funded.
If Barnier follows through with the PR proposal, the RN could be in a stronger position for the next legislative elections, given its leading vote share. Le Pen’s party is likely to tread carefully, using its influence to achieve its goals without causing political chaos.
