French Prime Minister François Bayrou looks set to survive a no-confidence vote in the National Assembly on Wednesday, following a key decision from the leader of the right-wing National Rally (RN) to not support the motion backed by left-wing opposition parties.
Bayrou, appointed by President Emmanuel Macron in December to resolve a political crisis, used a controversial constitutional mechanism—article 49.3—on Monday to pass his cost-cutting budget through parliament without a vote. This action triggered a no-confidence motion from the hard-left France Unbowed, supported by the Communists and Greens, which was scheduled for a vote on Wednesday.
Although Bayrou lacks a majority in the National Assembly, both the Socialists and the National Rally have pledged not to back the motion, providing him the necessary support to survive the vote and secure the budget. However, this does not guarantee long-term stability for his administration, and further challenges are anticipated in the coming months.
Bayrou, a historian and writer with a keen interest in French history, is familiar with the fickle nature of political fortunes, as evidenced by the sudden end of political careers. “Passive support from both the Socialists and Marine Le Pen’s far-right for Bayrou will end once a 2025 budget is fully enacted,” according to risk analysis firm Eurasia Group, which predicts a 70% chance the government could fall in the coming months.
Despite the contentious budget, Jordan Bardella, leader of the RN, emphasized the need for political stability. “We need to avoid uncertainty because many of our fellow citizens… are extremely worried about possible long-term instability,” he said.
Socialist leader Olivier Faure explained his party’s decision not to vote against the government, stating that toppling Bayrou would only lead to a more right-wing prime minister or potentially even a resignation of the head of state. “We chose to give France a budget,” he remarked.
In a symbolic move, the Socialist Party proposed a separate no-confidence motion after Bayrou’s controversial remarks on migration, which used language reminiscent of right-wing rhetoric. However, this motion is expected to fail as right-wing parties are anticipated to reject it.
Bayrou’s predecessor, Michel Barnier, was ousted in a no-confidence vote late last year, leaving the country in politically uncertain territory.
