A secret report from German security services, obtained by the newspaper BILD, warns that despite tightened migration policies, the number of illegal border crossings into Germany is likely to rise again in the coming months.
The report notes that the main flow of migrants still comes from the east — through Poland and the Czech Republic — as well as via air routes from Greece.
Nearly one-third of all illegal entry attempts are recorded at Germany’s eastern border. However, due to increased controls by Poland, migration routes are gradually shifting toward the Baltic countries — Latvia and Lithuania. Nevertheless, the main eastern route still passes through Belarus and Poland on the way to Germany.
Particular concern is raised by the ongoing flow of migrants who have already been granted asylum in Greece. Despite a recent ruling by the Federal Administrative Court allowing such individuals to be sent back to Greece, the air route from Greece to Germany remains one of the most popular among illegal migrants.
Since the tightening of border controls in September of last year, over 29,000 illegal crossing attempts have been recorded, with more than 15,000 of these occurring already in 2025.
