Calin Georgescu, a national-conservative sovereignist candidate with anti-EU and anti-NATO rhetoric, took everyone by surprise yesterday and emerged victorious in the first round with 22.9% of the vote, outpacing mainstream center-reformist Elena Lasconi, who secured 19.2%. The outcome has prompted consternation in the EU left-liberal establishment over Romania potentially following the paths of Hungary and Slovakia, where Russia-friendly sentiment has gained political ground.
Călin Georgescu, a 62-year-old expert in sustainable development and agriculture, emerged victorious despite having no formal party backing. He has a history with the national-conservative movement Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), but has distanced himself from the party in recent years. His platform emphasizes small-scale organic agriculture, Christian values, and national sovereignty. Many have compared his message to that of U.S. presidential hopeful Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who similarly advocates for a return to grassroots values and independence from global institutions.
Georgescu’s rapid rise in popularity is partially attributed to his promises to “restore Romania’s dignity” and reduce what he describes as its subservience to NATO and the EU. His campaign, heavily driven by TikTok content—including videos of him bathing in icy waters—has captured the attention of younger voters and Romanians abroad. His TikTok following skyrocketed from 30,000 to over 330,000 in just two weeks, culminating in more than 4 million likes and ultimately translating into over two million votes nationwide. The shocking electoral results have sent ripples through Romania’s political establishment, forcing key figures like Social Democrat leader Marcel Ciolacu and former Prime Minister Nicolae Ciucă of PNL to contemplate resigning from party leadership.
This weekend’s developments underscore a dramatic shift in Romania’s political landscape, where traditional party dominance has crumbled under the weight of voter dissatisfaction and the rise of alternative, counter-establishment political forces. Both PSD and PNL suffered from uninspiring campaigns plagued by errors and controversies, including corruption scandals and allegations of plagiarism. Pollsters grossly underestimated voter shifts, placing eventual frontrunner Călin Georgescu in distant obscurity at around 5% of support! Romania’s Western diaspora, which traditionally leans toward reformist or anti-establishment candidates, disproportionately supported “the outsider” Georgescu.
Călin Georgescu: From Technocrat to National-Conservative Sovereignist Firebrand
But Georgescu is far from the outsider. His rise has left many analysts puzzled. Once a technocrat with a career spanning roles in environmental and sustainable development, Georgescu shifted toward nationalist and anti-globalist politics in recent years. Georgescu led the National Center for Sustainable Development from 2000 to 2013 and served as a UN Special Rapporteur on toxic waste. He was head of the Romanian chapter of the “Club of Rome.” Early in his career, a prominent advocate for Romania’s environmental and economic sustainability, and an advisor in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, he aligned himself with Romania’s globalist camp.
Georgescu joined the right-wing Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR) in 2020 but left after internal disagreements. His controversial praise for Romania’s interwar and wartime leaders like Codreanu and Antoanescu, proved divisive even within AUR. Although he was their candidate for the Prime Minister in the 2020 elections.
Georgescu’s new nationalist rhetoric, which includes implicit admiration for Moscow, has made him an outlier even among Romania’s Rightist camp. He has criticized NATO’s presence in Romania and suggested re-evaluating the country’s alignment with Western institutions. Despite initial distancing, AUR leader George Simion has thrown his support behind Georgescu in the runoff, emphasizing their shared “sovereigntist” values.
A Challenge to Romania’s Western Alignment
Romania’s presidency holds significant influence, particularly in foreign policy. For decades, Romania has been a staunch ally of NATO and the EU, in recent years playing a critical role in facilitating Western military support for Ukraine. The Mihail Kogălniceanu airbase and the U.S.-backed missile defense shield at Deveselu highlight Romania’s strategic importance.
However, Georgescu has criticized these long-time military alliances. He described the Deveselu missile shield as “a diplomatic embarrassment,” questioning its defensive nature—an argument aligning with Russian narratives that portray NATO’s presence as aggressive. In a 2018 interview, he praised Russian President Vladimir Putin as a “true leader,” which, along with his positions on NATO, has fueled perceptions of him as pro-Russian. Russian media outlets, including Sputnik and Russia Today, celebrated his electoral success, though the Kremlin officially downplayed it. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin press secretary, stated on Monday “ that he is not acquainted with the attitudes of Georgescu and that he couldn’t comment”, according to Russian media.
Controversies and Comparisons
Georgescu’s views on Romania’s history have sparked significant controversy. He has referred to figures associated with the Iron Guard as “heroes,” leading to accusations of extremism and antisemitism. These remarks resulted in his expulsion from AUR. Nonetheless, Georgescu denies any xenophobic or antisemitic intentions, framing his campaign as a call to revive Romanian pride and sovereignty.
His political trajectory invites comparisons to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, particularly in their shared scepticism of Western policies toward Ukraine. Both advocate for ending the conflict and restoring peace in Europe, although Georgescu’s views on NATO and the EU go further in challenging Romania’s established commitments.
The unexpected success of this sovereignist and Russia-friendly candidate in the first round of Romania’s presidential election has actually sent shockwaves through Brussels and across NATO member states. Once seen as a steadfast ally to the EU and NATO, Romania now faces the possibility of aligning with pro-Moscow policies, a shift that could destabilize the bloc and embolden Kremlin influence in the region.
Milan Nič, an analyst at the German Council on Foreign Relations, highlights the strategic importance of Romania to Russian geopolitical ambitions. “Their plan is to cut Romania off from the Black Sea,” he said, noting parallels with Russian attempts to sway Moldova and Georgia.
Georgescu’s platform is openly critical of NATO, EU integration, and the United States’ military presence in Romania. His praise for Vladimir Putin as “a man who loves his country” and skepticism of Western military assistance to Ukraine suggest a potential pivot toward Moscow if he secures the presidency.
If Romania joins the growing list of EU states with leaders critical of the globalist West, including Hungary and Slovakia, the bloc may struggle to maintain cohesion on critical issues such as sanctions on Russia and support for Ukraine.
Upcoming Runoff and Parliamentary Elections
Adding to the political uncertainty, Romania’s parliamentary elections are set to take place between the two presidential rounds. These elections will determine the balance of power in the legislature, which plays a critical role in Romania’s hybrid political system.
Although the December 8th runoff between Georgescu and Lasconi will determine Romania’s presidential direction, the parliamentary elections on December 1 are set to be equally consequential. With Romania’s hybrid political system, legislative outcomes will shape the effectiveness of any president’s agenda.
The ruling coalition, composed of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the National Liberal Party (PNL), is expected to face significant losses due to public dissatisfaction over corruption and economic stagnation. This opens the door for the conservative sovereignist gains, potentially amplifying Georgescu’s influence. Following his victory in the first round of the presidential election, Călin Georgescu received an endorsement from George Simion, the leader of the hard-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). If Simion’s base were to transfer their votes entirely to Georgescu, his support would rise to 36.82% in the runoff election. The decisive factor in the second round will hinge on whether voters from Romania’s traditional mainstream parties—disillusioned by their own candidates’ performances—opt to back Georgescu, rally behind Lasconi, or abstain altogether. This dynamic will likely determine whether Romania continues on its Western-aligned trajectory or shifts toward the anti-globalist policies championed by Georgescu. While unproven, accusations of Russian intelligence meddling have added another layer of controversy to the election.
Georgescu’s campaign capitalized on widespread frustrations with corruption, economic stagnation, and perceived overreach of Western institutions in Romanian governance. His rhetoric, blending anti-EU sentiment with promises of a “neutral” foreign policy, resonated with voters in rural areas and among those disillusioned by decades of political instability. His victory suggests that the nationalist Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR), which he is aligned with, might gain significant traction in the parliamentary vote.
Pre-election polling indicates a fragmented electorate. The Social Democratic Party (PSD) remains a dominant force, yet AUR could emerge as a major player, possibly forcing traditional parties to navigate uncomfortable coalition scenarios. This could disrupt Romania’s longstanding Euro-Atlantic orientation. Georgescu’s leadership might embolden AUR to push for a more isolationist stance, challenging Romania’s commitments to NATO and the EU, particularly its role in supporting Ukraine amidst the ongoing conflict with Russia.
Foreign Policy Concerns
Georgescu’s presidency already raises questions about Romania’s stance on regional security and its relationship with NATO. His softer rhetoric towards Russia contrasts sharply with his predecessor’s pro-Western policies. If his ideology shapes the parliamentary majority, Romania could reduce its active support for Ukraine and reassess its military and economic partnerships with Western allies.
Although it’s premature to declare outright, the election results could mark a turning point in Romanian politics, highlighting a broader trend of anti-establishment and national-conservative movements gaining ground across Europe. If Georgescu wins, Romania’s foreign policy could shift significantly, with potential consequences for NATO, the EU, and Ukraine, given Romania’s strategic importance on NATO’s eastern flank. Like other recent elections across Europe in the past months and years, this election reflects growing dissatisfaction with traditional parties and a pivot towards nationalist and Eurosceptic sentiments. This shift could heavily influence Romania’s parliamentary elections scheduled for December 1, 2024, with potential consequences for the nation’s domestic policies and foreign alignments.
